While observing the devastating escalation of the Ukraine-Russia war, I, as a Lithuanian and a young person, came to the conclusion that I need to learn more about the situation itself and the actions that could be taken. Thus, I decided to conduct an interview with Tomas Jermalavicius, who is the head of studies at the International Centre for Defence and Security, based in Estonia, to learn more about the scale of the current affairs in Ukraine and how the youth can help. This interview helped me understand that each individual's help is and will be needed until the war ends. Below you will find some arguments analyzing the war in more depth and important calls for action that should matter to each and every one of us.
To explain the initial context, on the 24th of February, 2022, Vladimir Putin launched the invasion of Ukraine, stating that the goal is to “demilitarise and de-Nazify Ukraine”. The interview with Tomas Jermalavicius was conducted around the beginning of April and before starting to analyze the war in-depth, it is important to draw a clear picture of the current situation. As Tomas Jermalavicius described the state of the war in April, both sides have reached the peak of their performance, at least looking at the conventional tools. Russia’s military could not move forward due to logistic, communication, and moral problems whereas Ukraine does not have the capacity to start a powerful counterattack to take out Russia’s power. The current, most relevant tool that Putin is focusing on is the mass destruction of infrastructure, targeting civilians. The possibility of starting “the war of trenches” is high, where specific locations will be set, and on-and-off violence will persist.
Putin’s goal
The question that is discussed often is what is Putin’s goal? Tomas Jermalavicius told me that the main objective of Putin is very clear. Initially, he wanted to make Ukraine this symbolic country, potentially absorb in the future, adding to the Russian empire. In Putin’s eyes, Ukrainians remain illegitimate artificial Nazis with no right to exist (or only within Russia). The expert continued by emphasizing that Ukraine joining NATO would limit Putin from achieving his crazy goals. One cannot do it with a country that belongs to NATO or the
European Union. Another question that we discussed during the interview was what was the effect of the pandemic on Putin’s behavior? Putin spent the time in a bunker, surrounded only by oligarchs that brought him an even more empirical (empirical or imperial?) mindset. Tomas Jermalavicius explained to me that Putin may declare a win in the Eastern region of Ukraine and successful protection of Russian speakers and then move back, but even if that happens, the end is not in the picture. Without achieving the end goal, the escalation will not stop easily and Putin will continue attempting to destroy Ukraine as a sovereign state. Most importantly, without achieving a total military win, neither Ukraine nor Europe will be safe.
Another mystery T. Jermalavicius highlighted is that we cannot be sure about the extent of accurate information Putin is receiving. From the fear of portraying any kind of failure, it is likely that the soldiers, generals, and oligarchs are feeding him false details. Thus, evaluating what mental state Putin is in is complicated. However, Jermalavicus explained to me that no matter the various scenarios, it is better for Putin to lose against NATO than Ukraine as losing against Ukraine would portray him as a complete failure.
The Role of the West
The Western countries have been loud about their support to Ukraine, but are they loud enough? The specialist told me that Ukraine does get a lot of support from the West, but its effectiveness is very limited due to logistical and administrative issues. For example, the military equipment needs to be manufactured and transported to Ukraine and it is not the heavy equipment that would bring a strong counterattack to the Russian forces. “I am scared the situation will evolve into something similar that was in Donbas, constant escalation, but way harsher”, says Tomas. Russia focuses on the economic centers, then in the end it will be a battle of industrial capabilities between Russia and the West. What’s important to recognize is that the conflict will take a while unless a collapse occurs in either Russia or Ukraine, however more likely in Russia due to political and psychological pressure.
The circle around Putin has the instruments to control the inside regime, especially the federal protection service, which will ensure to calm down the protests. It is obvious that Putin has consolidated his inner circle of him and there is evidence that the society is consolidated as well. Thus, we may conclude that the full effect of the sanctions has not appeared yet and there are gaps in the sanctions that limit their effectiveness. T. Jermalavicius
raises an important question - traditionally, Russia fails from time to time in its history, how many civilians will suffer from this failure?
To minimize the suffering, we need to maximize the escalation: provide more military equipment, financial support, etc. We need to do everything for Ukraine to beat Russia militarily. The problem is that the equipment is not laying around, it needs to be built and transported, later on, also the Ukrainian soldiers need to be trained on how to use the equipment. Another strategy that Jermalavicius explained was that the West could borrow some tricks from Putin’s book and, for example, pretend that operators or soldiers are Ukrainians even if it would be our soldiers dressed in their uniforms. Soviets used to do it for years and we should do it too in order to optimize our support and resources.
Another step that needs to be taken by the Western countries is completely disconnecting all the banks from SWIFT, abandoning any present diplomatic connections, removing any standing embassies, removing companies, and shifting all the gas connections. For better effectiveness, if we want to cut off the financial inflow from Europe, we need to completely cut them off.
Future Developments
When talking about ways to support and assist Ukraine, Tomas and I explored ways that could be done just by laying in your bed. By going to propagandist social media group chats, and using phone numbers to call/chat with people in Russia, one may help destroy the misinformation and show clarity about the current situation in Ukraine. The cyber war plays an important role in showing what Russia is actually doing in Ukraine.
Donate. Donate to help buy equipment, donate clothes, and food. They need everything from drones to shoes. Zoos are suffering, animals are suffering. Donate everywhere and everything. With capabilities, some people may volunteer in the Ukrainian army if their government allows it. People must understand that we must create a complete atmosphere of intolerance against the Russian minorities that are still supporting the Russian regime.
This war and its consequences will change the world. If the youth wants to live in a better world, they need to construct it. This war is a crucial part of forming the world they will live in. If young people want to live in authoritarian regimes or if they want to see a brighter future and safety in peace and democracy. Today it may be in Ukraine, tomorrow
Armenia, then the Baltic states. World peace may end in a very sad manner, hence, everyone, including the youth, must see that this is only the first chapter, there will be more.