On November 7th, after 4 long days of vote tallying and rising tensions, Joe Biden was finally declared the winner of the 2020 election and the 46th president of the United States. The crucial States that allowed the Biden-Harris ticket to obtain the 270 Electoral College votes were Pennsylvania, Michigan, and Wisconsin, the famous traditionally Democratic ‘blue wall’ that were taken by Trump in 2016. Biden went even further, managing to flip Arizona and Georgia, both States that have mostly voted for Republican candidates in the past. However, Trump has so far failed to acknowledge his loss, claiming that the election was stolen and touting conspiracy theories that consider mail-in ballots fraudulent. His campaign has found no evidence whatsoever to support this claim.
Electoral College Map (source: NY Times)
This election campaign was probably the most polarizing in US history, revealing a deeply divided country on themes such as the Covid-19 response, racial justice and health care. It took place in the midst of a global pandemic that killed over 250,000 Americans and after several months of protests that advocated against police brutality and systemic racism. The importance of these elections is shown by the record turnout: according to BBC exit polls, 66% of eligible voters cast their ballot, the highest figure since 1900. Both Biden and Trump have received more votes than any other candidate in US history.
To have a better picture of this election it is essential to look at how different demographic groups voted. The trends there were observed in 2016 were mostly repeated, with Democrats scoring better amongst urban, young, college graduates and non-white voters. The chart below clearly shows the polarization of the country. (Disclaimer: this data comes from exit polls, which are not official and might be slightly inaccurate)
How different demographic groups voted (source: BBC news)
What does a Democrat victory mean for the United States?
First of all, it puts an end to the 4 years of terrible leadership of the Trump Administration, characterized by incompetence, constant lies, racism and misogyny. The public has gotten used to hearing Trump support conspiracy theories and anti-democratic values, which will have long lasting consequences on American society and increase polarization and tensions. Unfortunately, even once Trump is out of office, the fight against politics based on hate, division and demagogy will have to continue.
On a more positive note, Kamala Harris will be the first woman and person of color to be elected as vice-president. This is a historical step in terms of gender equality and racial justice, which will hopefully help move towards more inclusive politics, also considering that American society is becoming increasingly non-white.
Furthermore, the Biden-Harris Administration will certainly have a drastically different approach towards the Covid-19 crisis, prioritizing what the scientific experts say in terms of testing and vaccines and introducing an emergency plan to fight the economic crisis. Biden also promised to expand Obama-care by adding a public option, tackle systemic racism and act decisively against climate change, which are amongst the most imperative topics for voters. However, it is important to say that his administration will be very limited in terms of policy making due to the likely victory of the Republican party in the Senate, which will be decided in early January by two run-off elections in Georgia.
And what does it mean for the rest of the world and for the Middle-East peace process?
In terms of foreign affairs, the new administration will try to work closely with traditional allies such as the EU, trying more generally to regain America’s role as a leader in the international political arena. Biden will most likely go back into the Paris agreement and try to reach a new nuclear deal with Iran, which will be very complicated given the current tensions.
Looking at the Israeli-Palestinian conflict, Biden has not taken a clear position during his campaign. Looking at his voting record in Congress, we know that he is a strong supporter of Israel, even though he has spoken out in favor of a two-state solution. However, it seems unlikely that he will take steps back on Trump’s decisions of declaring Jerusalem the capital of Israel and recognizing Israel’s sovereignty over parts of the occupied West Bank and Golan heights. On the other hand, there is some hope that the new administration will review the ‘Deal of the Century’, involving Palestinian representatives into the discussion. Furthermore, it is likely that Biden will make attempts to engage again into diplomatic ties with the Palestinian Authority. For instance, he might reopen the US Consulate in East Jerusalem, after Trump closed it in 2019.
On another note, the neo-elected president Biden supports the recent trend of normalization of relations between Israel and Arab States. If Saudi Arabia will also follow in normalizing relations, this will highly benefit the US, allowing the formation of a solid alliance against Iran and strengthening its economic ties with the most powerful of the Gulf States. However, it is essential to put pressure on Israel and on the Arab States to involve efforts in favor of Palestinian Statehood as a part of their normalization deals. Only by doing so the Biden administration will be able to genuinely contribute to the peace process of the region.
Overall, avoiding a second term of Trump was a great success, but Biden's victory margin was still much narrower than polls had suggested and one would have expected after the uncountable scandals and disasters of the Trump administration. The fight for issues that are important to my generation, such as living in a more racially just and inclusive society and urgently acting against climate change, is still long and full of challenges. Hopefully Biden will not disappoint our expectations and undertake a more progressive approach on these critical issues.